J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38718541
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Seasonal infectious diseases can cause demand and supply pressures that reduce the ability of healthcare systems to provide high-quality care. This may generate negative spillover effects on the health outcomes of patien...Seasonal infectious diseases can cause demand and supply pressures that reduce the ability of healthcare systems to provide high-quality care. This may generate negative spillover effects on the health outcomes of patients seeking medical help for unrelated reasons. Separating these indirect burdens from the direct consequences for infected patients is usually impossible due to a lack of suitable data and an absence of population testing. However, this paper finds robust empirical evidence of excess mortality among non-COVID-19 patients in an integrated public healthcare system: the English National Health Service (NHS). Analysing the forecast error in the NHS' model for predicted mortality, we find at least one additional excess death among patients who sought medical help for reasons unrelated to COVID-19 for every 42 COVID-19-related deaths in the population. We identify COVID-19 pressures as a key driver of non-COVID-19 excess mortality in NHS hospitals during the pandemic, and characterize the hospital populations and medical conditions that were disproportionately affected. Our findings have substantive relevance in shaping our understanding of the wider burden of COVID-19, and other seasonal diseases more generally, and can contribute to debates on optimal public health policy.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38705048
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We develop a unified framework for the measurement and valuation of health and productivity. Within this framework, we characterize evaluation functions allowing for compromises between the classical quality-adjusted lif...We develop a unified framework for the measurement and valuation of health and productivity. Within this framework, we characterize evaluation functions allowing for compromises between the classical quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and its polar productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs). Our framework and characterization results provide a new normative basis for the economic evaluation of health care interventions, as well as occupational health and safety policies, aimed to impact both health and productivity of individuals.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38703637
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This study examines the gender-specific and enduring impacts of parental health shocks on adult children's employment in China, where both formal care and health insurance are limited. Using an event-study approach, we e...This study examines the gender-specific and enduring impacts of parental health shocks on adult children's employment in China, where both formal care and health insurance are limited. Using an event-study approach, we establish a causal link between parental health shocks and a notable decline in female employment, which persists for at least six years following the shock. Male employment, however, exhibits minimal change on average, although this conceals an increase among poor families, indicating a channel beyond heightened informal care. Our findings underscore the consequences of "growing old before getting rich" for developing countries.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38626590
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Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caus...Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caused by poor clinical prioritisation or a quality-quantity trade-off generated by a binding capacity constraint. We study the effects of crowding created by lower-severity patients on the outcomes of approximately 13 million higher-severity patients attending the 140 public EDs in England between April 2016 and March 2017. Our identification approach relies on high-dimensional fixed effects to account for planned capacity. Unexpected demand from low-severity patients has very limited effects on the care provided to higher-severity patients throughout their entire pathway in ED. Detrimental effects of crowding caused by low-severity patients materialise only at very high levels of unexpected demand, suggesting that binding resource constraints impact patient care only when demand greatly exceeds the ED's expectations. These effects are smaller than those caused by crowding induced by higher-severity patients, suggesting an efficient prioritisation of incoming patients in EDs.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38598916
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This paper assesses analytical strategies that respect the bounded-count nature of health outcomes encountered often in empirical applications. Absent in the literature is a comprehensive discussion and critique of strat...This paper assesses analytical strategies that respect the bounded-count nature of health outcomes encountered often in empirical applications. Absent in the literature is a comprehensive discussion and critique of strategies for analyzing and understanding such data. The paper's goal is to provide an in-depth consideration of prominent issues arising in and strategies for undertaking such analyses, emphasizing the merits and limitations of various analytical tools empirical researchers may contemplate. Three main topics are covered. First, bounded-count health outcomes' measurement properties are reviewed and their implications assessed. Second, issues arising when bounded-count outcomes are the objects of concern in evaluations are described. Third, the (conditional) probability and moment structures of bounded-count outcomes are derived and corresponding specification and estimation strategies presented with particular attention to partial effects. Many questions may be asked of such data in health research and a researcher's choice of analytical method is often consequential.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38581749
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Medicaid spends nearly 100 billion dollars annually on home and community-based care for the disabled. Much of this care is provided by personal care aides, few of whom have received training related to the services they...Medicaid spends nearly 100 billion dollars annually on home and community-based care for the disabled. Much of this care is provided by personal care aides, few of whom have received training related to the services they provide. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to estimate their demand for training. We find that 13 percent of these caregivers complete training without an incentive. Paying the caregivers four times their hourly wage increases training completion by roughly nine percentage points. Additional experimental variation suggests that among individuals confirmed to be aware of the training, the financial incentive increases completion from 35 to 58 percent. Demand curves based on these results suggest that while many caregivers value the opportunity to train, policies aimed at universal take up require large financial incentives.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38579485
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This paper analyzes the interplay between congressional politics, the actions of the executive branch, and hospitals' regulated Medicare payments. We focus on the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) and analyze a provi...This paper analyzes the interplay between congressional politics, the actions of the executive branch, and hospitals' regulated Medicare payments. We focus on the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) and analyze a provision in the law - Section 508 - that raised certain hospitals' regulated payments. We show, via our analysis of the Section 508 program, that Medicare payments are malleable and can be influenced by political dynamics. In the cross-section, hospitals represented by members of Congress who voted "yea" on the MMA were more likely to receive Section 508 payment increases. We interviewed the Secretary of Health and Human Services who oversaw the MMA, and he described how these payment increases were designed to win support for the law. The Section 508 payment increases raised hospitals' activity and spending. Members of Congress representing recipient hospitals received increased campaign contributions after the Section 508 payment increases were extended. Ultimately, our analysis highlights how Medicare payment increases can serve as an appealing tool for legislative leaders working to win votes for wider pieces of legislation.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38574575
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Integration of health care services has been promoted in several countries to improve the quality and coordination of care. We investigate the effects of such integration in a model where providers compete on quality to...Integration of health care services has been promoted in several countries to improve the quality and coordination of care. We investigate the effects of such integration in a model where providers compete on quality to attract patients under regulated prices. We identify countervailing effects of integration on quality of care. While integration makes coordination of care more profitable for providers due to bundled payments, it also softens competition as patient choice is restricted. We also identify circumstances due to asymmetries across providers and/or services under which integration either increases or reduces the quality of services provided. In the absence of synergies, integration generally leads to increases in quality for some services and reductions for others. The corresponding effect on health benefits depends largely on whether integration leads to quality dispersion or convergence across services. If the softening of competition effect is weak, integration is likely to improve quality and patient outcomes.
J Health Econ
· 2024 May · PMID 38461677
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Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s...Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38447245
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This paper shows that selection incentives in downstream markets distort upstream prices. It is possible for inputs to be priced above the value that the good has for final consumers. We apply this idea to pharmaceutical...This paper shows that selection incentives in downstream markets distort upstream prices. It is possible for inputs to be priced above the value that the good has for final consumers. We apply this idea to pharmaceutical companies selling drugs to a health insurance market with selection problems. We specify the conditions under which drugs are sold at prices exceeding treatment value. Another feature of the model is an excessive private incentive to reduce market size, e.g. in the form of personalized medicine.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38428266
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Nurses are increasingly providing primary care, yet the literature on cost-sharing has paid little attention to nurse visits. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences design to examine the effects of adopting a 10...Nurses are increasingly providing primary care, yet the literature on cost-sharing has paid little attention to nurse visits. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences design to examine the effects of adopting a 10-euro copayment for nurse visits on the use of public primary care among Finnish adults. We find that the copayment reduced nurse visits by 9%-10% during a one-year follow-up. There is heterogeneity by income in absolute terms, but not in relative terms. The spillover effects on general practitioner (GP) use are negative but small, with varying statistical significance. We also analyze the subsequent nationwide abolition of the copayment. However, we refrain from drawing causal conclusions from this due to the lack of credibility in the parallel trends assumption. Overall, our analysis suggests that moderate copayments can create a greater barrier to access for low-income individuals. We also provide an example of using a pre-analysis plan for retrospective observational data.
Brosig-Koch J, Hennig-Schmidt H, Kairies-Schwarz N
… +2 more, Kokot J, Wiesen D
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38401249
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There is considerable controversy about what causes (in)effectiveness of physician performance pay in improving the quality of care. Using a behavioral experiment with German primary-care physicians, we study the incenti...There is considerable controversy about what causes (in)effectiveness of physician performance pay in improving the quality of care. Using a behavioral experiment with German primary-care physicians, we study the incentive effect of performance pay on service provision and quality of care. To explore whether variations in quality are based on the incentive scheme and the interplay with physicians' real-world profit orientation and patient-regarding motivations, we link administrative data on practice characteristics and survey data on physicians' attitudes with experimental data. We find that, under performance pay, quality increases by about 7pp compared to baseline capitation. While the effect increases with the severity of illness, the bonus level does not significantly affect the quality of care. Data linkage indicates that primary-care physicians in high-profit practices provide a lower quality of care. Physicians' other-regarding motivations and attitudes are significant drivers of high treatment quality.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38367452
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We study intertemporal tradeoffs that health authorities face when considering the control of an epidemic using innovative curative medical treatments. We set up a dynamically controlled susceptible-infected-recovered (S...We study intertemporal tradeoffs that health authorities face when considering the control of an epidemic using innovative curative medical treatments. We set up a dynamically controlled susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for an epidemic in which patients can be asymptomatic, and we analyze the optimality conditions of the sequence of cure expenses decided by health authorities at the onset of the drug innovation process. We show that analytical conclusions are ambiguous because of their dependence on parameter values. As an application, we focus on the case study of hepatitis C, the treatment for which underwent a major upheaval when curative drugs were introduced in 2014. We calibrate our controlled SIR model using French data and simulate optimal policies. We show that the optimal policy entails some front loading of the intertemporal budget. The analysis demonstrates how beneficial intertemporal budgeting can be compared to non-forward-looking constant budget allocation.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38359587
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The paper estimates the causal effect of a health treatment on patients' beliefs, preferences and memories about the treatment. It exploits a natural experiment which occurred in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 va...The paper estimates the causal effect of a health treatment on patients' beliefs, preferences and memories about the treatment. It exploits a natural experiment which occurred in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. UK residents could choose to opt into the vaccination program, but not which vaccine they received. The assignment to a vaccine offered little objective information for learning about its qualities, but triggered strong psychological demand for reassuring beliefs. We surveyed a sample of UK residents about their beliefs on the different COVID-19 vaccines before and after receiving their jab. Before vaccination, individuals exhibit similar prior beliefs and stated preferences about the different vaccines. After vaccination, however, they update their beliefs overly optimistically about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine they received, state that they would have chosen it if they could, and have distorted memories about their past beliefs. These results cannot be explained by conventional experience effects. At the aggregated level, they show that random assignment to a health treatment predicts a polarization of opinions about its quality. At the individual level, these findings provide evidence in line with the predictions of motivated beliefs and over-inference from weak signals in a real-world health setting.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38359586
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The US government increasingly provides public health insurance coverage through private firms. We examine associated welfare implications for beneficiaries, using a 'revealed preference' framework based on beneficiaries...The US government increasingly provides public health insurance coverage through private firms. We examine associated welfare implications for beneficiaries, using a 'revealed preference' framework based on beneficiaries' program attrition rates. Focusing on the Medicaid program in New York State, we exploit quasi-random variation in the initial assignment at birth to public versus private Medicaid based on birth weight. We find that infants assigned to private Medicaid at birth are less likely to subsequently leave Medicaid. We provide suggestive evidence that reduced attrition reflects beneficiary responses to improved program quality, rather than alternative mechanisms such as private Medicaid plans reducing re-enrollment barriers.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38354657
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In countries with dual public and private healthcare systems, individuals are often incentivized to purchase private health insurance through subsidies and penalty. We use administrative data from Australia to study how...In countries with dual public and private healthcare systems, individuals are often incentivized to purchase private health insurance through subsidies and penalty. We use administrative data from Australia to study how high-income earners respond on both the intensive and extensive margins to the simultaneous withdrawal of a premium subsidy, and the increase of a tax penalty. We estimate regression discontinuity models by exploiting discontinuous changes in the penalty and subsidy rates. Our setting is particularly interesting because means testing creates different incentives at the extensive and intensive margins. Specifically, we could expect to see higher take-up of insurance coupled with downgrading to less expensive plans. We find evidence that the penalty - despite being large in value - only has a modest effect on take-up. Our results show little evidence of downgrading, which is consistent with a low price elasticity for the high-income earners we study.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38341937
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We examine the effect of raising the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21 (i.e., "T21"). We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data f...We examine the effect of raising the minimum legal sale age of tobacco to 21 (i.e., "T21"). We estimate difference-in-differences models using the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey data and Nielsen Retail Scanner data from 2012 to 2019. Outcomes include cigarette and e-cigarette use and sales. We find sizable reductions in e-cigarette and cigarette use for 12th graders. T21 also reduced cigarette sales by 12.4 % and e-cigarette sales by 69.3 % in counties with the highest percent quartile of individuals under 21 years of age. In terms of mechanisms, we find that T21 increases ID checking and perceived risks of using both products.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38280239
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This paper examines the relationship between immigration enforcement and institutionalization rates of the elderly. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the Secure Communities (SC) immigration enforcement program a...This paper examines the relationship between immigration enforcement and institutionalization rates of the elderly. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the Secure Communities (SC) immigration enforcement program across U.S. counties from 2008 through 2014, we show that SC led to a 0.26 percentage points (6.8 percent) increase in the likelihood that Americans aged 65 and above live in an institution. Supportive of supply shocks in the household services market as a central mechanism, we find that the elderly who are most likely to purchase domestic worker services are also the most likely to move into nursing homes following the implementation of SC. Additionally, we find suggestive evidence of significant reductions in the work hours of housekeepers, personal care aides, and home health workers hinting at the critical role of negative supply shocks in occupations that facilitate aging in community.
J Health Econ
· 2024 Mar · PMID 38266377
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We design a novel experiment to identify aversion to pure (univariate) health inequality separately from aversion to income-related and income-caused health inequality. Participants allocate resources to determine health...We design a novel experiment to identify aversion to pure (univariate) health inequality separately from aversion to income-related and income-caused health inequality. Participants allocate resources to determine health of individuals. Identification comes from random variation in resource productivity and information on income and its causal effect. We gather data (26,286 observations) from a sample of UK adults (n = 337) and estimate pooled and participant-specific social preferences while accounting for noise. The median person has strong aversion to pure health inequality, challenging the health maximisation objective of economic evaluation. Aversion to health inequality is even stronger when it is related to income. However, the median person prioritises health of poorer individuals less than is assumed in the standard measure of income-related health inequality. On average, aversion to that inequality does not become stronger when low income is known to cause ill-health. There is substantial heterogeneity in all three types of inequality aversion.