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Biosecurity And Bioterrorism[JOURNAL]

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Detection of the urban release of a bacillus anthracis simulant by air sampling.

Garza AG, Van Cuyk SM, Brown MJ … +1 more , Omberg KM

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24697146 · Full text

In 2005 and 2009, the Pentagon Force Protection Agency (PFPA) staged deliberate releases of a commercially available organic pesticide containing Bacillus amyloliquefaciens to evaluate PFPA's biothreat response protocols... In 2005 and 2009, the Pentagon Force Protection Agency (PFPA) staged deliberate releases of a commercially available organic pesticide containing Bacillus amyloliquefaciens to evaluate PFPA's biothreat response protocols. In concert with, but independent of, these releases, the Department of Homeland Security sponsored experiments to evaluate the efficacy of commonly employed air and surface sampling techniques for detection of an aerosolized biological agent. High-volume air samplers were placed in the expected downwind plume, and samples were collected before, during, and after the releases. Environmental surface and personal air samples were collected in the vicinity of the high-volume air samplers hours after the plume had dispersed. The results indicate it is feasible to detect the release of a biological agent in an urban area both during and after the release of a biological agent using high-volume air and environmental sampling techniques.

Do Latin American scientific journals follow dual-use review policies?

Valles EG, Bernacchi AS

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24693885 · Full text

During the past decade, a number of journals have implemented dual-use policies in order to analyze whether the papers submitted for publication could raise concern because of the potential for misuse of their content. I... During the past decade, a number of journals have implemented dual-use policies in order to analyze whether the papers submitted for publication could raise concern because of the potential for misuse of their content. In this context, an analysis was performed on Latin American scientific journals to examine whether they apply formal written dual-use review policies and whether they inform their authors and reviewers about potentially sensitive issues in this area, as other international journals do. Peer-reviewed life sciences journals indexed in Latindex from Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile were analyzed. The Guide for Authors and the Instructions to Referees of 216 journals included in the Latindex catalogue (which means that they meet the best quality standards of the Latindex system) were screened for biosecurity-related information using the keywords biosecurity, biological weapons, and dual-use research of concern. Results showed that the screened publications had a total lack of dual-use review policies, even though some of them pointed out ethical behaviors to be followed related to authorship, plagiarism, simultaneous submission, research results misappropriation, ethical principles for medical research involving human subjects, guiding principles for the care and use of animals in research, research standard violations, and reviewer bias, among others.

Moving ahead on the global health security agenda.

Inglesby T, Fischer JE

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24641445 · Publisher ↗

Abstract loading — click title to view on PubMed.

Comprehensive laboratory evaluation of a specific lateral flow assay for the presumptive identification of abrin in suspicious white powders and environmental samples.

Ramage JG, Prentice KW, Morse SA … +27 more , Carter AJ, Datta S, Drumgoole R, Gargis SR, Griffin-Thomas L, Hastings R, Masri HP, Reed MS, Sharma SK, Singh AK, Swaney E, Swanson T, Gauthier C, Toney D, Pohl J, Shakamuri P, Stuchlik O, Elder IA, Estacio PL, Garber EA, Hojvat S, Kellogg RB, Kovacs G, Stanker L, Weigel L, Hodge DR, Pillai SP

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24552362 · Publisher ↗

Abrin is a heterodimeric toxin present in the seeds of the Abrus precatorius plant. The easily obtainable seeds can yield a highly toxic product that can be used in various types of biocrimes and terrorism-related activi... Abrin is a heterodimeric toxin present in the seeds of the Abrus precatorius plant. The easily obtainable seeds can yield a highly toxic product that can be used in various types of biocrimes and terrorism-related activities, including "white-powder" letters. Although the vast majority of these threats are hoaxes, the lack of rapid and reliable detection assays for abrin, such as lateral flow assays (LFAs), can be an impediment to accurate and rapid hazard assessment. One of the complicating factors associated with LFAs is the use of antibodies of poor affinity and specificity that cross-react with near neighbors or that bind to plant lectins, which are capable of nonspecifically cross-linking the capture and detector antibodies. Because of the critical need to promote public safety and public health, we conducted a comprehensive laboratory evaluation of a commercial LFA for the rapid detection of abrin. This study was conducted using comprehensive inclusivity and exclusivity panels of abrin and near-neighbor plant materials, along with panels of lectins, related proteins, white powders, and environmental background material, to determine the sensitivity, specificity, limit of detection, dynamic range, and repeatability of the assay for the specific intended use of evaluating suspicious white powders and environmental samples for the presumptive presence of abrin.

2011 investigation of internal contamination with radioactive strontium following rubidium Rb 82 cardiac PET scan.

Pillai SK, Chang A, Murphy MW … +22 more , Buzzell J, Ansari A, Whitcomb RC, Miller C, Jones R, Saunders DP, Cavicchia P, Watkins SM, Blackmore C, Williamson JA, Stephens M, Morrison M, McNees J, Murphree R, Buchanan M, Hogan A, Lando J, Nambiar A, Torso L, Melnic JM, Yang L, Lewis L

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24552361 · Publisher ↗

During routine screening in 2011, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) identified 2 persons with elevated radioactivity. CBP, in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory, informed the Food and Drug Administrat... During routine screening in 2011, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) identified 2 persons with elevated radioactivity. CBP, in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory, informed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that these people could have increased radiation exposure as a result of undergoing cardiac Positron Emission Tomography (PET) scans several months earlier with rubidium Rb 82 chloride injection from CardioGen-82. We conducted a multistate investigation to assess the potential extent and magnitude of radioactive strontium overexposure among patients who had undergone Rb 82 PET scans. We selected a convenience sample of clinical sites in 4 states and reviewed records to identify eligible study participants, defined as people who had had an Rb 82 PET scan between February and July 2011. All participants received direct radiation screening using a radioisotope identifier able to detect the gamma energy specific for strontium-85 (514 keV) and urine bioassay for excreted radioactive strontium. We referred a subset of participants with direct radiation screening counts above background readings for whole body counting (WBC) using a rank ordering of direct radiation screening. The rank order list, from highest to lowest, was used to contact and offer voluntary enrollment for WBC. Of 308 participants, 292 (95%) had direct radiation screening results indistinguishable from background radiation measurements; 261 of 265 (98%) participants with sufficient urine for analysis had radioactive strontium results below minimum detectable activity. None of the 23 participants who underwent WBC demonstrated elevated strontium activity above levels associated with routine use of the rubidium Rb 82 generator. Among investigation participants, we did not identify evidence of strontium internal contamination above permissible levels. This investigation might serve as a model for future investigations of radioactive internal contamination incidents.

Facilitating access to antiviral medications and information during an influenza pandemic: engaging with the public on possible new strategies.

Fain BA, Koonin LM, Stoto MA … +4 more , Shah UA, Cooper SR, Piltch-Loeb RN, Kellermann AL

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24552360 · Full text

Antiviral medications can decrease the severity and duration of influenza, but they are most effective if started within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms. In a severe influenza pandemic, normal channels of obtaining pre... Antiviral medications can decrease the severity and duration of influenza, but they are most effective if started within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms. In a severe influenza pandemic, normal channels of obtaining prescriptions and medications could become overwhelmed. To assess public perception of the acceptability and feasibility of alternative strategies for prescribing, distributing, and dispensing antivirals and disseminating information about influenza and its treatment, the Institute of Medicine, with technical assistance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), convened public engagement events in 3 demographically and geographically diverse communities: Fort Benton, MT; Chattanooga, TN; and Los Angeles, CA. Participants were introduced to the issues associated with pandemic influenza and the challenges of ensuring timely public access to information and medications. They then discussed the advantages and disadvantages of 5 alternative strategies currently being considered by the CDC and its partners. Participants at all 3 venues expressed high levels of acceptance for each of the proposed strategies and contributed useful ideas to support their implementation. This article discusses the key findings from these sessions.

BSL-3 laboratory practices in the United States: comparison of select agent and non-select agent facilities.

Richards SL, Pompei VC, Anderson A

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24552359 · Full text

New construction of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratories in the United States has increased in the past decade to facilitate research on potential bioterrorism agents. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ins... New construction of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratories in the United States has increased in the past decade to facilitate research on potential bioterrorism agents. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention inspect BSL-3 facilities and review commissioning documentation, but no single agency has oversight over all BSL-3 facilities. This article explores the extent to which standard operating procedures in US BSL-3 facilities vary between laboratories with select agent or non-select agent status. Comparisons are made for the following variables: personnel training, decontamination, personal protective equipment (PPE), medical surveillance, security access, laboratory structure and maintenance, funding, and pest management. Facilities working with select agents had more complex training programs and decontamination procedures than non-select agent facilities. Personnel working in select agent laboratories were likely to use powered air purifying respirators, while non-select agent laboratories primarily used N95 respirators. More rigorous medical surveillance was carried out in select agent workers (although not required by the select agent program) and a higher level of restrictive access to laboratories was found. Most select agent and non-select agent laboratories reported adequate structural integrity in facilities; however, differences were observed in personnel perception of funding for repairs. Pest management was carried out by select agent personnel more frequently than non-select agent personnel. Our findings support the need to promote high quality biosafety training and standard operating procedures in both select agent and non-select agent laboratories to improve occupational health and safety.

Hospital bioterrorism planning and burn surge.

Kearns RD, Myers B, Cairns CB … +8 more , Rich PB, Hultman CS, Charles AG, Jones SW, Schmits GL, Skarote MB, Holmes JH, Cairns BA

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24527874 · Full text

On the morning of June 9, 2009, an explosion occurred at a manufacturing plant in Garner, North Carolina. By the end of the day, 68 injured patients had been evaluated at the 3 Level I trauma centers and 3 community hosp... On the morning of June 9, 2009, an explosion occurred at a manufacturing plant in Garner, North Carolina. By the end of the day, 68 injured patients had been evaluated at the 3 Level I trauma centers and 3 community hospitals in the Raleigh/Durham metro area (3 people who were buried in the structural collapse died at the scene). Approximately 300 employees were present at the time of the explosion, when natural gas being vented during the repair of a hot water heater ignited. The concussion from the explosion led to structural failure in multiple locations and breached additional natural gas, electrical, and ammonia lines that ran overhead in the 1-story concrete industrial plant. Intent is the major difference between this type of accident and a terrorist using an incendiary device to terrorize a targeted population. But while this disaster lacked intent, the response, rescue, and outcomes were improved as a result of bioterrorism preparedness. This article discusses how bioterrorism hospital preparedness planning, with an all-hazards approach, became the basis for coordinated burn surge disaster preparedness. This real-world disaster challenged a variety of systems, hospitals, and healthcare providers to work efficiently and effectively to manage multiple survivors. Burn-injured patients served as a focus for this work. We describe the response, rescue, and resuscitation provided by first responders and first receivers as well as efforts made to develop burn care capabilities and surge capacity.

Deterministic models of inhalational anthrax in New Zealand white rabbits.

Gutting B

Biosecur Bioterror · 2014 · PMID 24527843 · Full text

Computational models describing bacterial kinetics were developed for inhalational anthrax in New Zealand white (NZW) rabbits following inhalation of Ames strain B. anthracis. The data used to parameterize the models inc... Computational models describing bacterial kinetics were developed for inhalational anthrax in New Zealand white (NZW) rabbits following inhalation of Ames strain B. anthracis. The data used to parameterize the models included bacterial numbers in the airways, lung tissue, draining lymph nodes, and blood. Initial bacterial numbers were deposited spore dose. The first model was a single exponential ordinary differential equation (ODE) with 3 rate parameters that described mucociliated (physical) clearance, immune clearance (bacterial killing), and bacterial growth. At 36 hours postexposure, the ODE model predicted 1.7×10⁷ bacteria in the rabbit, which agreed well with data from actual experiments (4.0×10⁷ bacteria at 36 hours). Next, building on the single ODE model, a physiological-based biokinetic (PBBK) compartmentalized model was developed in which 1 physiological compartment was the lumen of the airways and the other was the rabbit body (lung tissue, lymph nodes, blood). The 2 compartments were connected with a parameter describing transport of bacteria from the airways into the body. The PBBK model predicted 4.9×10⁷ bacteria in the body at 36 hours, and by 45 hours the model showed all clearance mechanisms were saturated, suggesting the rabbit would quickly succumb to the infection. As with the ODE model, the PBBK model results agreed well with laboratory observations. These data are discussed along with the need for and potential application of the models in risk assessment, drug development, and as a general aid to the experimentalist studying inhalational anthrax.

Ready or not: analysis of a no-notice mass vaccination field response in Philadelphia.

Caum J, Alles S

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24329167 · Publisher ↗

Local health departments typically rely on exercises to test preparedness capacity; however, pre-scripted drills often lack the sense of urgency that a real event would engender. No-notice, unscripted exercises that chal... Local health departments typically rely on exercises to test preparedness capacity; however, pre-scripted drills often lack the sense of urgency that a real event would engender. No-notice, unscripted exercises that challenge staff to think critically under pressure may provide a mechanism for a more realistic assessment of preparedness capacity. The very active influenza season of 2012-13 presented the Public Health Preparedness Program at the Philadelphia Department of Public Health with the opportunity to conduct an influenza vaccination clinic at a local boarding school. Program leaders used this opportunity to design a no-notice exercise to test the ability of staff to effectively coordinate an emergency field response while simultaneously delivering a real public health intervention. On the day of the exercise, staff members were given 6 hours to plan and execute a vaccination clinic without any guidance from program leaders. Best practices observed during the exercise included: (1) early identification and mitigation of rate-limiting steps, and (2) successful implementation of a previously untested high-throughput vaccination model. Although the primary intent of the exercise was to assess the ability of staff to respond to a no-notice event, this vaccination clinic also functioned as a microcosm of a larger response, revealing several considerations related to vaccine ordering, staff resources, and throughput rates that have broader implications for public health responses to large-scale biological attacks or pandemics.

Health security resolutions for 2014.

Cicero A, Inglesby T

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24329166 · Publisher ↗

Abstract loading — click title to view on PubMed.

Comprehensive laboratory evaluation of a highly specific lateral flow assay for the presumptive identification of ricin in suspicious white powders and environmental samples.

Hodge DR, Prentice KW, Ramage JG … +20 more , Prezioso S, Gauthier C, Swanson T, Hastings R, Basavanna U, Datta S, Sharma SK, Garber EA, Staab A, Pettit D, Drumgoole R, Swaney E, Estacio PL, Elder IA, Kovacs G, Morse BS, Kellogg RB, Stanker L, Morse SA, Pillai SP

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24320219 · Publisher ↗

Ricin, a heterodimeric toxin that is present in the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant, is the biothreat agent most frequently encountered by law enforcement agencies in the United States. Even in untrained hands, the e... Ricin, a heterodimeric toxin that is present in the seeds of the Ricinus communis plant, is the biothreat agent most frequently encountered by law enforcement agencies in the United States. Even in untrained hands, the easily obtainable seeds can yield a highly toxic product that has been used in various types of threats, including "white-powder" letters. Although the vast majority of these threats are hoaxes, an impediment to accurate hazard assessments by first responders is the unreliability of rapid detection assays for ricin, such as lateral flow assays (LFAs). One of the complicating factors associated with LFAs is the incorporation of antibodies of poor specificity that cross-react with near-neighbors or with plant lectins that are capable of nonspecifically cross-linking the capture and detector antibodies. Because of the compelling and critical need to promote the interests of public safety and public health, the Department of Homeland Security conducted a comprehensive laboratory evaluation study of a commercial LFA for the rapid detection of ricin. This study was conducted using comprehensive inclusivity and exclusivity panels of ricin and near-neighbor plant materials, along with panels of lectins and "white-powders," to determine the specificity, sensitivity, limits of detection, dynamic range, and repeatability of the assay for the specific intended use of evaluating suspicious white powders and environmental samples in the field.

The influenza vaccine menu.

Adalja AA

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24256405 · Publisher ↗

Medicine for Policymakers is a Journal column that provides decision makers with brief explanations of the meaning and implications for biosecurity of clinical issues. The articles describe, for a nonmedical audience, ho... Medicine for Policymakers is a Journal column that provides decision makers with brief explanations of the meaning and implications for biosecurity of clinical issues. The articles describe, for a nonmedical audience, hospital practices, medical challenges, healthcare delivery issues, and other topics of current interest. Readers may submit ideas to the column's editor, Amesh A. Adalja, MD, through the Journal's editorial office at jjfox@upmc.edu .

The meta-leadership summit for preparedness initiative: an innovative model to advance public health preparedness and response.

Sobelson RK, Young AC, Marcus LJ … +3 more , Dorn BC, Neslund VS, McNulty EJ

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24251597 · Full text

This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise... This article reports on the design, evaluation framework, and results from the Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness was a 5-year initiative based on the premise that national preparedness and emergency response is not solely the responsibility of government. From 2006 to 2011, 36 Meta-Leadership Summits were delivered in communities across the country. Summits were customized, 10-hour leadership development, networking, and community action planning events. They included participation from targeted federal, state, local, nonprofit/philanthropic, and private sector leaders who are directly involved in decision making during a major community or state-wide emergency. A total of 4,971 government, nonprofit, and business leaders attended Meta-Leadership Summits; distribution of attendees by sector was balanced. Ninety-three percent of respondents reported the summit was a valuable use of time, 91% reported the overall quality as "good" or "outstanding," and 91% would recommend the summit to their colleagues. In addition, approximately 6 months after attending a summit, 80% of respondents reported that they had used meta-leadership concepts or principles. Of these, 93% reported that using meta-leadership concepts or principles had made a positive difference for them and their organizations. The Meta-Leadership Summit for Preparedness Initiative was a value-added opportunity for communities, providing the venue for learning the concepts and practice of meta-leadership, multisector collaboration, and resource sharing with the intent of substantively improving preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.

Public health emergencies and responses: what are they, how long do they last, and how many staff does your agency need?

Posid JM, Bruce SM, Guarnizo JT … +3 more , O'Connor RC, Papagiotas SS, Taylor ML

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24219494 · Publisher ↗

Responding to outbreaks is one of the most routine yet most important functions of a public health agency. However, some outbreaks are bigger, more visible, or more complex than others, prompting discussion about when an... Responding to outbreaks is one of the most routine yet most important functions of a public health agency. However, some outbreaks are bigger, more visible, or more complex than others, prompting discussion about when an "outbreak" becomes a "public health emergency." When a public health emergency is identified, resources (eg, funding, staff, space) may need to be redirected from core public health programs to contribute to the public health emergency response. The need to sustain critical public health functions while preparing for public health emergency responses raises a series of operational and resource management questions, including when a public health emergency begins and ends, why additional resources are needed, how long an organization should expect staff to be redirected, and how many staff (or what proportion of the agency's staff ) an organization should anticipate will be needed to conduct a public health emergency response. This article addresses these questions from a national perspective by reviewing events for which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention redirected staff from core public health functions to respond to a series of public health emergencies. We defined "public health emergency" in both operational and public health terms and found that on average each emergency response lasted approximately 4 months and used approximately 9.5% of our workforce. We also provide reasons why public health agencies should consider the impact of redirecting resources when preparing for public health emergencies.

Botulinum toxin field assays evaluated using cosmetic botox preparations.

Slotved HC, Tanassi JT, Sparding N … +3 more , Lindqvist A, Steenhard NR, Heegaard NH

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Dec · PMID 24219493 · Publisher ↗

Several quick tests for identifying botulinum toxins (BoNTs) are commercially available, but generally these tests have not been evaluated by independent laboratories. This study presents data on the evaluation of a numb... Several quick tests for identifying botulinum toxins (BoNTs) are commercially available, but generally these tests have not been evaluated by independent laboratories. This study presents data on the evaluation of a number of commercial tests and demonstrates the use of cosmetic preparations of BoNT A and B as positive controls. For reference we used an in-house ELISA procedure. The cosmetic toxins, Botox(®) and Neurobloc(®), were found to be useful-that is, they had a sufficiently high toxin content to be used in test evaluation studies. Some commercial kits based on columns (ABICAP(®)) or lateral flow technology were tested for their detection limits. The ABICAP column system was found to be a useful alternative to an in-house ELISA method. In general, the lateral flow-based test systems evaluated here were not able to detect BoNT, and a large proportion of the tests showed construction failures. In conclusion, this study showed that cosmetic BoNT products have enough toxin content to be used as convenient and accessible means of testing commercially available quick tests. The lateral flow tests used in this study were not satisfactory, while the ABICAP system was found to be a good alternative to an ELISA.

Pre-PCR processing in bioterrorism preparedness: improved diagnostic capabilities for laboratory response networks.

Hedman J, Knutsson R, Ansell R … +2 more , Rådström P, Rasmusson B

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Sep · PMID 23971826 · Publisher ↗

Diagnostic DNA analysis using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has become a valuable tool for rapid detection of biothreat agents. However, analysis is often challenging because of the limited size, quality, and purity of... Diagnostic DNA analysis using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has become a valuable tool for rapid detection of biothreat agents. However, analysis is often challenging because of the limited size, quality, and purity of the biological target. Pre-PCR processing is an integrated concept in which the issues of analytical limit of detection and simplicity for automation are addressed in all steps leading up to PCR amplification--that is, sampling, sample treatment, and the chemical composition of PCR. The sampling method should maximize target uptake and minimize uptake of extraneous substances that could impair the analysis--so-called PCR inhibitors. In sample treatment, there is a trade-off between yield and purity, as extensive purification leads to DNA loss. A cornerstone of pre-PCR processing is to apply DNA polymerase-buffer systems that are tolerant to specific sample impurities, thereby lowering the need for expensive purification steps and maximizing DNA recovery. Improved awareness among Laboratory Response Networks (LRNs) regarding pre-PCR processing is important, as ineffective sample processing leads to increased cost and possibly false-negative or ambiguous results, hindering the decision-making process in a bioterrorism crisis. This article covers the nature and mechanisms of PCR-inhibitory substances relevant for agroterrorism and bioterrorism preparedness, methods for quality control of PCR reactions, and applications of pre-PCR processing to optimize and simplify the analysis of various biothreat agents. Knowledge about pre-PCR processing will improve diagnostic capabilities of LRNs involved in the response to bioterrorism incidents.

The need for high-quality whole-genome sequence databases in microbial forensics.

Sjödin A, Broman T, Melefors Ö … +4 more , Andersson G, Rasmusson B, Knutsson R, Forsman M

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Sep · PMID 23971825 · Publisher ↗

Microbial forensics is an important part of a strengthened capability to respond to biocrime and bioterrorism incidents to aid in the complex task of distinguishing between natural outbreaks and deliberate acts. The goal... Microbial forensics is an important part of a strengthened capability to respond to biocrime and bioterrorism incidents to aid in the complex task of distinguishing between natural outbreaks and deliberate acts. The goal of a microbial forensic investigation is to identify and criminally prosecute those responsible for a biological attack, and it involves a detailed analysis of the weapon--that is, the pathogen. The recent development of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies has greatly increased the resolution that can be achieved in microbial forensic analyses. It is now possible to identify, quickly and in an unbiased manner, previously undetectable genome differences between closely related isolates. This development is particularly relevant for the most deadly bacterial diseases that are caused by bacterial lineages with extremely low levels of genetic diversity. Whole-genome analysis of pathogens is envisaged to be increasingly essential for this purpose. In a microbial forensic context, whole-genome sequence analysis is the ultimate method for strain comparisons as it is informative during identification, characterization, and attribution--all 3 major stages of the investigation--and at all levels of microbial strain identity resolution (ie, it resolves the full spectrum from family to isolate). Given these capabilities, one bottleneck in microbial forensics investigations is the availability of high-quality reference databases of bacterial whole-genome sequences. To be of high quality, databases need to be curated and accurate in terms of sequences, metadata, and genetic diversity coverage. The development of whole-genome sequence databases will be instrumental in successfully tracing pathogens in the future.

Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

Andersson MG, Sundström A, Lindström A

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Sep · PMID 23971824 · Publisher ↗

In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on ava... In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

Dealing with future risks in the Netherlands.

van Tuyll M

Biosecur Bioterror · 2013 Sep · PMID 23971823 · Publisher ↗

The national security strategy is the Dutch government's instrument for multihazard risk management and is intended to contribute to the prevention of societal disruption as a consequence of a (future) disaster or crisis... The national security strategy is the Dutch government's instrument for multihazard risk management and is intended to contribute to the prevention of societal disruption as a consequence of a (future) disaster or crisis in the Netherlands. It considers the likelihood that a certain incident will occur, the impact if it should occur, and what can be done to prevent the occurrence and/or reduce the impact. In other words, "which threats is the Netherlands faced with, how serious are they, and what can be done to mitigate the consequences?" By annually assessing the likelihood and impact of different scenarios, the government is able to continually improve its overview of risks and to determine priorities regarding the allocation of resources for the prevention of, preparation for, and response to threats. At the start of the annual cycle of the implementation of the national security strategy, possible scenarios are identified. These scenarios are then drawn up and assessed by the Network of Analysts for National Security, resulting in the national risk assessment (NRA). On the basis of this risk assessment, a capabilities analysis is performed. This capabilities analysis assesses whether the country (government, private sector, and civilians) has sufficient capabilities (people, material, knowledge, skills, and procedures) at its disposal to adequately deal with the threat, and it considers which capabilities should be strengthened or developed. Finally, a report is prepared for the council of ministers. On the basis of this report, the cabinet decides which capabilities will be strengthened.
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