Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colo...Malaria elimination remains a major public health challenge in many tropical regions, including large areas of northern South America. In this study, we present a new high spatial resolution (90 × 90 m) risk map for Colombia and surrounding areas based on environmental and human population data. The map was created through a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis in which expert opinion was solicited to determine key environmental and population risk factors, different fuzzy functions to standardize risk factor inputs, and variable factor weights to combine risk factors in a geographic information system. The new risk map was compared to a map of malaria cases in which cases were aggregated to the municipio (municipality) level. The relationship between mean municipio risk scores and total cases by muncípio showed a weak correlation. However, the relationship between pixel-level risk scores and vector occurrence points for two dominant vector species, and , was significantly different (p < 0.05) from a random point distribution, as was a pooled point distribution for these two vector species and . Thus, we conclude that the new risk map derived based on expert opinion provides an accurate spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure rather than malaria transmission as shown by the pattern of malaria cases, and therefore it may be used to inform public health authorities as to where vector control measures should be prioritized to limit human-vector contact in future malaria outbreaks.
A typical epidemic often involves the transmission of a disease, the flow of information regarding the disease, and the spread of human preventive behaviors against the disease. These three processes diffuse simultaneous...A typical epidemic often involves the transmission of a disease, the flow of information regarding the disease, and the spread of human preventive behaviors against the disease. These three processes diffuse simultaneously through human social networks, and interact with one another, forming negative and positive feedback loops in the complex human-disease systems. Few studies, however, have been devoted to coupling all the three diffusions together and representing their interactions. To fill the knowledge gap, this article proposes a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate a triple-diffusion process in a metropolitan area of 1 million people. The individual-based approach, network model, behavioral theories, and stochastic processes are used to formulate the three diffusions and integrate them together. Compared to the observed facts, the model results reasonably replicate the trends of influenza spread and information propagation. The model thus could be a valid and effective tool to evaluate information/behavior-based intervention strategies. Besides its implications to the public health, the research findings also contribute to network modeling, systems science, and medical geography.
A GIS-based risk index model was developed to quantify EEEV transmission risk to horses in the State of Florida. EEEV is a highly pathogenic arbovirus that is endemic along the east coast of the United States, and it is...A GIS-based risk index model was developed to quantify EEEV transmission risk to horses in the State of Florida. EEEV is a highly pathogenic arbovirus that is endemic along the east coast of the United States, and it is generally fatal to both horses and humans. The model evaluates EEEV transmission risk at individual raster cells in map on a continuous scale of 0 to 1. The risk index is derived based on local habitat features and the composition and configuration of surrounding land cover types associated with EEEV transmission. The model was verified and validated using the locations of documented horse cases of EEEV. These results of the verification and validation indicate that the model is able to predict locations of EEEV transmission to horses broadly across the state. The model is relatively robust to regional variation in EEEV transmission and habitat conditions in Florida, and it accurately predicted nearly all verification and validation cases in the Panhandle, North, and Central regions of the state. The model performed less accurately in the South, where relatively few cases are documented. Despite these differences, the model provides a useful way to assess EEEV risk both from a regional perspective and at more localized scales. The resulting predictive maps are designed to guide EEEV surveillance and prevention efforts by county mosquito control districts.
Several spatial measures of community food access identifying so called "food deserts" have been developed based on geospatial information and commercially-available, secondary data listings of food retail outlets. It is...Several spatial measures of community food access identifying so called "food deserts" have been developed based on geospatial information and commercially-available, secondary data listings of food retail outlets. It is not known how data inaccuracies influence the designation of Census tracts as areas of low access. This study replicated the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) food desert measure and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) non-healthier food retail tract measure in two secondary data sources (InfoUSA and Dun & Bradstreet) and reference data from an eight-county field census covering169 Census tracts in South Carolina. For the USDA ERS food deserts measure accuracy statistics for secondary data sources were 94% concordance, 50-65% sensitivity, and 60-64% positive predictive value (PPV). Based on the CDC non-healthier food retail tracts both secondary data demonstrated 88-91% concordance, 80-86% sensitivity and 78-82% PPV. While inaccuracies in secondary data sources used to identify low food access areas may be acceptable for large-scale surveillance, verification with field work is advisable for local community efforts aimed at identifying and improving food access.
Agricultural production fulfills economic, ecological and structural functions. Despite technological advances, agricultural production remains sensitive to climate variations. In central Europe, climate change is predic...Agricultural production fulfills economic, ecological and structural functions. Despite technological advances, agricultural production remains sensitive to climate variations. In central Europe, climate change is predicted to bring more rainfall in winter, less rainfall in summer, and increased drought risk among other effects. Grassland agriculture, which is the dominant land use in Alpine regions, may be significantly affected by these climatic changes in the future. Motivated by this issue, the susceptibility of grassland yields to weather variations in Austria is empirical evaluated as a case study. The major objective of this study is to derive spatially distributed indications for climate change exposure by assessing the impacts of weather variations on past yield. It is assumed that reduced water supply during summer constitutes a threat to grassland productivity in regions that are warmer and drier already today. On the contrary, increased spring temperatures may improve grassland productivity in cooler regions like Alpine valleys, since the earlier snow melt leads to an extension of the growth period. Regression analyses are used for evaluating the relation between yearly yields and spring temperatures or water supply in summer, respectively. Water supply is thereby expressed by aggregated precipitation sums and the Climatic Water Balance (CWB). Input data are a meteorological time series as well as yearly yields available for 25 years between 1970 and 2010 and 99 districts in Austria. Yearly yields show a significant ( < 0.05) and positive dependency on water supply in summer for the eastern Austrian lowlands. The combination of temperature in spring and CWB in summer is only significant for six districts in the east of Austria. The positive impact of higher spring temperatures could not be verified. Generally, the regression coefficients are not very high, which indicates that temperature and water supply do not fully describe grassland productivity. Projected climate change may increasingly constitute a risk to yield reliability in the east of the country. That in turn, requires consideration in agricultural development plans and a quantification of these impacts from a social-economic perspective.
The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used...The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used to assess household income and wealth derived from agricultural production of lowland, rain-fed paddy rice and upland field crops in Nang Rong District as well as remittances returned to the household from family migrants who are engaged in off-farm employment in urban destinations. The ABM is supported by a longitudinal social survey of nearly 10,000 households, a deep satellite image time-series of land use change trajectories, multi-thematic social and ecological data organized within a GIS, and a suite of software modules that integrate data derived from an agricultural cropping system model (DSSAT - Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer) and a land suitability model (MAXENT - Maximum Entropy), in addition to multi-dimensional demographic survey data of individuals and households. The primary modules of the ABM are the Initialization Module, Migration Module, Assets Module, Land Suitability Module, Crop Yield Module, Fertilizer Module, and the Land Use Change Decision Module. The architecture of the ABM is described relative to module function and connectivity through uni-directional or bi-directional links. In general, the Social Modules simulate changes in human population and social networks, as well as changes in population migration and household assets, whereas the Land Use Modules simulate changes in land use types, land suitability, and crop yields. We emphasize the description of the Land Use Modules - the algorithms and interactions between the modules are described relative to the project goals of assessing household income and wealth relative to shifts in land use patterns, household demographics, population migration, social networks, and agricultural activities that collectively occur within a marginalized environment that is subjected to a suite of endogenous and exogenous dynamics.
Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic vari...Street connectivity, defined as the number of (3-way or more) intersections per area unit, is an important index of built environments as a proxy for walkability in a neighborhood. This paper examines its geographic variations across the rural-urban continuum (urbanicity), major racial-ethnic groups and various poverty levels. The population-adjusted street connectivity index is proposed as a better measure than the regular index for a large area such as county due to likely concentration of population in limited space within the large area. Based on the data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), this paper uses multilevel modeling to analyze its association with physical activity and obesity while controlling for various individual and county-level variables. Analysis of data subsets indicates that the influences of individual and county-level variables on obesity risk vary across areas of different urbanization levels. The positive influence of street connectivity on obesity control is limited to the more but not the mostly urbanized areas. This demonstrates the value of obesogenic environment research in different geographic settings, helps us reconcile and synthesize some seemingly contradictory results reported in different studies, and also promotes that effective policies need to be highly sensitive to the diversity of demographic groups and geographically adaptable.
What happens to the land cover within the hinterland's altitudinal belts while Central Andean cities are undergoing globalization and urban restructuring? What conclusions can be drawn about changes in human land use? By...What happens to the land cover within the hinterland's altitudinal belts while Central Andean cities are undergoing globalization and urban restructuring? What conclusions can be drawn about changes in human land use? By incorporating a regional altitudinal zonation model, direct field observations and GIS analyses of remotely sensed long term data, the present study examines these questions using the example of Huancayo Metropolitano - an emerging Peruvian mountain city of 420,000 inhabitants, situated at 3260 m asl in the Mantaro Valley. The study's results indicate that rapid urban growth during the late 1980s and early 1990s was followed by the agricultural intensification and peri-urban condominization at the valley floor () - since the beginning of Peru's neoliberal era. Moreover, regarding the adjoining steep slopes () and subsequent grassland ecosystems (), the research output presents land cover change trajectories that clearly show an expansion of human land use, such as reforestation for wood production and range burning for livestock grazing, even at high altitudes - despite rural-urban migration trends and contrary to several results of extra-Andean studies. Consequently, rural-urban planners and policy makers are challenged to focus on the manifold impacts of globalization on human land use - at all altitudinal belts of the Andean city's hinterland: toward sustainable mountain development that bridges the social and physical gaps - from the bottom up.
Migration-environment models tend to be aspatial within chosen study regions, although associations between temporary outmigration and environmental explanatory variables likely vary across the study space. This research...Migration-environment models tend to be aspatial within chosen study regions, although associations between temporary outmigration and environmental explanatory variables likely vary across the study space. This research extends current approaches by developing migration models considering spatial non-stationarity and temporal variation - through examination of the migration-environment association at nested geographic scales (i.e. whole-population, village, and subvillage) within a specific study site. Demographic survey data from rural South Africa, combined with indicators of natural resource availability from satellite imagery, are employed in a nested modeling approach that brings out distinct patterns of spatial variation in model associations derived at finer geographic scales. Given recent heightened public and policy concern with the human migratory implications of climate change, we argue that consideration of spatial variability adds important nuance to scientific understanding of the migration-environment association.
Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) and animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) are significant health concerns throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Funding for tsetse fly control operations has decreased since the 1970s,...Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) and animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) are significant health concerns throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Funding for tsetse fly control operations has decreased since the 1970s, which has in turn limited the success of campaigns to control the disease vector. To maximize the effectiveness of the limited financial resources available for tsetse control, this study develops and analyzes spatially and temporally dynamic tsetse distribution maps of Glossina subgenus Morsitans populations in Kenya from January 2002 to December 2010, produced using the Tsetse Ecological Distribution Model. These species distribution maps reveal seasonal variations in fly distributions. Such variations allow for the identification of "control reservoirs" where fly distributions are spatially constrained by fluctuations in suitable habitat and tsetse population characteristics. Following identification of the control reservoirs, a tsetse management operation is simulated in the control reservoirs using capital and labor control inputs from previous studies. Finally, a cost analysis, following specific economic guidelines from existing tsetse control analyses, is conducted to calculate the total cost of a nationwide control campaign of the reservoirs compared to the cost of a nationwide campaign conducted at the maximum spatial extent of the fly distributions from January 2002 to December 2010. The total cost of tsetse management within the reservoirs sums to $14,212,647, while the nationwide campaign at the maximum spatial extent amounts to $33,721,516. This savings of $19,508,869 represents the importance of identifying seasonally dynamic control reservoirs when conducting a tsetse management campaign, and, in the process, offers an economical means of fly control and disease management for future program planning.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a major public health issue across the globe, and it is of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Utilization of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services can significantly impact HIV...The HIV/AIDS epidemic remains a major public health issue across the globe, and it is of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Utilization of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services can significantly impact HIV prevention, transmission, and treatment. SRH service utilization may be determined by individual characteristics, such as education and economic status, but also by the location and accessibility of health care facilities. Using population-based survey data, this study applies exploratory spatial analysis techniques to examine spatial patterns of SRH service utilization among rural married women in southern Mozambique. Clustering among those using services is found as are spatial associations, indicating significant spatial variability in the utilization of health services. The findings provide valuable insights for current and future health care program planning and configuration.
Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term "environmental Kuznets curve" or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with...Borrowing from the Kuznets curve literature, researchers have coined the term "environmental Kuznets curve" or EKC to characterize the relationship between pollution levels and income: pollution levels will increase with income but some threshold of income will eventually be reached, beyond which pollution levels will decrease. The link between the original Kuznets curve, which posited a similar relationship between income and inequality, and its pollution-concerned offspring lies primarily with the shape of both curves (an upside-down U) and the central role played by income change. Although the EKC literature has burgeoned over the past several years, few concrete conclusions have been drawn, the main themes of the literature have remained constant, and no consensus has been reached regarding the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve. EKC research has used a variety of types of data and a range of geographical units to examine the effects of income levels on pollution. Changes in pollution levels might also be at least partly explained by countries' position in the demographic transition and their general population structure, however little research has included this important aspect in the analysis. In addition, few analyses confine themselves to an evaluation for one country of the long-term relationship between income and pollution. Using United States CO emissions as well as demographic, employment, trade and energy price data, this paper seeks to highlight the potential impact of population and economic structure in explaining the relationship between income and pollution levels.
This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at...This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.
This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly-developed mapping method, the Cadastral-ba...This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly-developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37 percent and 72 percent fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts.
"The growth of large urban aggregates (megacities) is analogous to the development of self-organized structures known in physics. Using empirical data about changes in the built-up areas of different cities as input, the..."The growth of large urban aggregates (megacities) is analogous to the development of self-organized structures known in physics. Using empirical data about changes in the built-up areas of different cities as input, the self-organizing model employed here suggests that megacities evolve towards a hierarchical form of spatial organization, and provides estimates of the size of subclusters that compose the urban aggregate.... The model has been validated by reproducing the evolution of the Berlin area over a period of 35 years (1910-45). Using the same assumptions, the evolution of the built-up area of Daegu (Korea) is simulated up to the year 2010."
"In the Netherlands, the sharp recent increase of the number of refugee immigrants (asylum seekers) runs parallel to increased numbers of immigrants of other types. Therefore, at least five types of immigrants should sti..."In the Netherlands, the sharp recent increase of the number of refugee immigrants (asylum seekers) runs parallel to increased numbers of immigrants of other types. Therefore, at least five types of immigrants should still be distinguished (labour migrants, migrants from former colonies, from EU countries, from other rich countries, and asylum seekers). Their spatial orientation in the Netherlands (urban, suburban, rural), by choice or by constraint, is the main focus of this study. The outcomes of the immigration processes have been confronted with general and spatial characteristics of the labour market and housing market. Matches and mismatches are discussed."
"Explicit policies on return migration are of rather recent date in most European countries, including Sweden. During the last few years a number of new policy initiatives have been taken in this field. The purpose of th..."Explicit policies on return migration are of rather recent date in most European countries, including Sweden. During the last few years a number of new policy initiatives have been taken in this field. The purpose of this paper is to examine how official Swedish policies on return migration have changed during the last 20 years. The conclusion is that Sweden has moved from a ¿non-policy' in the 1970s, much in opposition to ¿guestworker' or rotation systems, towards an active and explicit policy promoting return in the mid-1990s. The major trends in the country's immigration, emigration and return flows are also presented."
"While 'closed-door' immigration policies are adopted by most countries, 'exceptionalist' legislation is often made to permit entry of special immigrant groups. An example is the British Nationality (Hong Kong) Act 1990,..."While 'closed-door' immigration policies are adopted by most countries, 'exceptionalist' legislation is often made to permit entry of special immigrant groups. An example is the British Nationality (Hong Kong) Act 1990, which was passed in the run-up to the change in sovereignty of Hong Kong in 1997. Britain's increasingly restrictive immigration policies prior to 1990 [have] resulted in the majority of Hong Kong citizens having British nationality (as British Dependent Territories citizens) but without the right of abode in the U.K. The 1990 Act conferred full British citizenship status on 50,000 heads of households in Hong Kong." The authors conclude that "in a world of marked global inequalities, immigration pressure will become even more extreme and is likely to produce an increasing number of cases of exceptionalist immigration legislation in countries with both ¿open' and 'closed'-door policies.'
"Although Australia dismantled its ethnically discriminatory, immigrant-selection policy in the early 1970s, ethnicity remains--implicitly and unofficially--a significant consideration in its immigration policies and pra..."Although Australia dismantled its ethnically discriminatory, immigrant-selection policy in the early 1970s, ethnicity remains--implicitly and unofficially--a significant consideration in its immigration policies and practices. The paper outlines the traditional ¿White Australia' policy before describing the operation and impact of the new selection policies and the associated official commitment to multiculturalism. The causes, regional pattern and acceptability of the modern Asianization of immigration are then assessed. The final section indicates how ethnic-origin preferences continue to operate in an apparently non-discriminatory selection policy, largely through the management of demand by placements of Australian migration officers in particular locations overseas."